Is the AUD Oversold Ahead of the RBA Decision?
As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prepares for its final meeting of the year, inflation remains a significant hurdle to cutting interest rates. Analysts predict that any adjustments will likely occur in 2024, with projections ranging from February (Commonwealth Bank) to the June quarter (NAB).
This week, the RBA will convene to deliberate on the cash rate for the last time this year.
Despite hopes for a rate cut, the persistently high underlying inflation suggests such changes may not come until next year.
Major banks have varying outlooks: ANZ and Westpac anticipate rate cuts in May, NAB projects them for the June quarter, and the Commonwealth Bank remains optimistic about February.
Meanwhile, AUD/USD continued its downward trend last week, extending losses since the beginning of the month. This decline has driven the Relative Strength Index (RSI) into oversold territory, signaling the possibility of a short-term rebound. The next key support level is estimated to be around 0.6360.
Despite hopes for a rate cut, the persistently high underlying inflation suggests such changes may not come until next year.
Major banks have varying outlooks: ANZ and Westpac anticipate rate cuts in May, NAB projects them for the June quarter, and the Commonwealth Bank remains optimistic about February.
Meanwhile, AUD/USD continued its downward trend last week, extending losses since the beginning of the month. This decline has driven the Relative Strength Index (RSI) into oversold territory, signaling the possibility of a short-term rebound. The next key support level is estimated to be around 0.6360. 